Denver Market Insights for November 2020

Thanks to our talented and analytical lender partner Lonnie Glessner

Solds Exceed Active Inventory by 50%

Here is the November 7-county real estate sales report courtesy of SMDRA and REColorado. 

  • Buyers and sellers closed on 4,840 properties last month, an increase of 22.9% from a year ago and a 25% increase from 2 years ago.
  • Attached homes saw the number of sales increase by 32% year over year.
  • Detached homes saw the number of sales increase by just 19.3% year over year.
  • 3,519 homeowners listed their homes for sale last month for the first time. This is a small increase of just 3.7% from last November.
  • Attached new listings increased the most by 10.1% year over year.
  • Detached new listings only increased by 0.7% from last November.
  • 4,560 properties were placed under contract last month, a 19% increase from last year.
  • Pendings did drop by 16% from October telling me that there are possibly fewer buyers. Or maybe there is just not enough of the right priced homes for the remaining buyers to purchase?
  • Pendings or under contracts last month were still the highest we have ever seen in November by a large margin.
  • Months of inventory was just 0.67 months, the 6th month in a row at 1 month or less! I read this week that in Boise Idaho that their market has just 0.40 months of inventory. 
  • The average closed sales price last month was $538,163, an increase of 12.9% since last November.
  • The average closed sales price on attached homes only rose by 6.8% to $386,173.
  • The average closed sales price for detached homes rose by an amazing 15.8% to $603,750.
  • The median closed sales price last month was $460k, an increase of 10.3% from last November.
  • The median closed sales price for attached homes rose by 7.8% to $333k
  • The median closed sales price for detached homes rose by 13.5% to $505k. 
  • The average closed to original list price ratio hit an amazing 99.7%, up from 96.9% last year. In 2016 and 2017 this percentage was at 97.8%. We thought our market was strong then; its much stronger and tighter now.
  • Average days in market was 21 last month, down from 34 days last year. This is a drop of 38%
  • Median days in market was just 6 days last month for the 4th consecutive month, down from 19 days a year ago. This is an astonishing drop of 68%!
  • We ended November with just 3,236 properties for sale, down a whopping 45% from last November.
  • Median days in market was lowest in Highlands Ranch and Westminster at just 4 days.
  • The “slowest” market was Denver with 8 median days in market. 

My Thoughts and Observations-

  • Amazing to see nearly 5,000 properties sell in November. This was more than in March!
  • Very interesting to see attached home sales up 32% over the last year. For many first-time home buyers this is there only option I am sure.
  • The number of new listings only increased because more owners of attached homes want to sell and move. Detached homeowners are staying put.
  • Attached home prices only rose by a “modest” nearly 7% to nearly 8%.
  • Detached home prices rose by an astronomical 13.5% (median) and 15.8% for average prices. This tells me buyers are COVETING detached homes in the Age of COVID and who can blame them.
  • By this metric our market is 68% hotter, stronger, faster than last year’s market-Median Days in Market. 
  • Since May the average closed sales price of a detached home has increased by $70k or by 13.1%
  • Since May the median closed sales price of a detached home has only risen by $37k or by 7.9%
  • This tells me that we have seen many more expensive homes sell this year, thus driving up average prices more than median prices.
  • A price increase of 7.9% is much more sustainable long-term than a 13% increase. 
  • Median days in market is lowest in the $400k-$500k price range at just 5 days.
  • Median days in market is 6 days in the $300k-$400k price range and from $500k to $900k price range.
  • Median days in market is a whopping 14 days in the price range of $100k to $200k. If you have clients looking for a cheap condo or townhouse there are good opportunities in this price range.
  • Median days in market is 20 days in the $1 million to $2 million price range. 
  • Pendings out-numbered new listings by a whopping 30%. This should not happen!
  • Solds out-numbered our entire active inventory by 50%. Holy Cow!
  • Demand is still far out-stripping supply! Thus, prices are rising by double-digit percentages.
  • What does it take to get a home under contract currently? On homes priced under $700k I would recommend that your buyers offer at least 3% above list price on new listings as 1% or 2% is not enough.

This is why that I recommend that first-time homebuyers start seriously shopping for homes at least 3 months before their lease ends. It’s going to take them time to get under contract.