Looking at the statistics for June 2020

  • Buyers closed on 5,580 properties in June, an increase of 3.3% from June 2019. Attached home sales led the way with an increase of 3.6% in the number of sales vs 2019.
  • Homeowners placed 6,757 new properties on the market as New Listings last month. This was down 2.3% from a year ago.
  • New listings for attached properties increased by 6.9% year over year.
  • New listings for detached properties dropped by 6% year over year.
  • Pendings or under contracts soared in June to 7,109 properties placed under contract. This was a big increased of 27.4% from last June. But, don’t forget in April pendings plunged by 45% year over year.
  • Detached pendings increased by 26.6% last month.
  • Attached pendings increased by 29.2% last month.
  • The average days in market was 24 last month, an increase of 1 day from a year ago.
  • The median days in market was 9 days in June, an increase of 1 day from a year ago.
  • Median Days in Market was the fewest in the $300k-$400k price range at just 6 days. Second shortest was from $400k to $500k at just 7 Median Days in Market.
  • We ended June with just 5,561 properties for sale, down 13.3% from last June.
  • This puts months of inventory at a miniscule .997 months or just under 1 month! 
  • The average closed price last month was $502,993, a 2% annual increase for all properties.
  • The average closed price for attached homes was $368,001, an increase of just 1%.
  • The average closed price for detached homes was $553,486, an increase of 2.1%.
  • The median closed price last month was $442k, up 4% year over year for all properties.
  • The median closed price last month for attached properties was $323k, an increase of 5.2% year over year.
  • The median closed price last month for detached properties was $477k, an increase of 3.7% year over year.

Looking at the data from 11 specific cities the “slowest” markets as measured by Median Days in Market are Castle Rock at 12 days and Parker at 14 days. Every other city is < 10 days. Next, if you are looking for an “affordable” home the best cities to look in are based on their median sold prices as follows-

  • Aurora $370k
  • Thornton $389,950
  • Westminster $400k.
  • The most expensive city was Highlands Ranch at $517,500 

When I look at the data from the all-important $200k-$600k price range here is what I see-

  • 71.8% of our new listings were in this price range.
  • 75.7% of our closings were in this price range.
  • Only 53.2% of our active listings are in this price range.
  • We still need a lot more homes for sale in this price range. 

Year to Date Data-

  • New listings year to date are down 9.3% to 33,413; the 2nd fewest number of new listings in the last 5 years.
  • 28,665 properties have gone under contract so far this year, down 3.4% from 2019. Still this number was nearly equal to 2018.
  • 23,676 properties have sold so far this year, down 9.9% from 2019. The number of closings has dropped more than the number of pendings has dropped. Is this a sign of “cold feet” by more buyers this year?
  • This is our first year of the last 5 years to see fewer than 25k homes close in the first 6 months.
  • The average closed price year to date for detached homes is up 2.5% to $541,943
  • The average closed price year to date for attached homes is up just 1.7% to $367,983.
  • The median closed price year to date for detached homes is up 6% to $470k.
  • The median closed price year to date for attached homes is up 4.4% to $318k.
  • Median Days in Market year to date is 8 days, down from 10 days last year. Amazing to me that this number is lower this year than last year even with Covid.
  • Average Days in Market year to date is 28 days, down 1 day from last year.
  • The closed to original list price ratio year to date is 98.9% up from 98.3% last year, but down from 99.8% from 2018.

Thoughts and Analysis

  • Is the Pandemic the cause of new listings for attached properties increasing? Is this a sign that people are “social distancing” by way of their homes?
  • Ditto for the drop in new listings of detached properties?
  • New listings this June was the lowest figure we have seen in the last 5 years.
  • For the first time in June we saw over 2,000 new attached home listings.
  • In June we saw the fewest new listings for detached homes in the last 5 years.
  • If you have buyers looking for a $5 million+ home there were only 2 new listings last month for them to choose from. From $3 million to $5 million there were only 20 new listings to choose from.
  • It was good to see average sold prices increase again year over year after taking a 1 month drop in May which I expected would happen.
  • The average sold price of an attached home has only risen by 2.6% since June 2018.
  • Whereas, the average sold price of a detached home has risen by 4.7% since June 2018.
  • It’s very good to see median prices increasing more than average prices. Why? It’s the lower half of the market driving prices up; its not $1 million+ homes driving prices up. This is a sign of a healthy market.
  • The average closed to original list price ratio was 99.0% in June, up from 98.6% in June 2019. This means on average homes are selling for just a 1% discount.
  • Amazing to see Months of Inventory less than 1 month! This is why Bidding Wars have returned so strongly.
  • I was a little surprised to see that “only” 5,580 properties closed last month as I thought this number would be > 6,000. 13.25% of May’s Pendings didn’t close in June,
  • The average detached closed price in June was still over $4,000 LESS than it was in March when prices peaked at over $557k. Normally prices peak in May or June every year; but this year is NOT a normal year.
  • The median closed price in June was $3,000 less for both attached and detached homes compared to sold prices in March.
  • I would bet that home prices will peak this year in July or August.
  • Median detached home price appreciation has slowed down the last 2 years which is good to see. In 2017 median prices increased by 11% and in 2018 they increased by 9.1%. The last 2 years median prices have only increased by 2.3% in 2019 and 5.2% this year.
  • In Dollar terms median prices had been increasing by $25k-$30k a year. Since 2018 median detached sold prices have only increased by $27k. So our price appreciation curve has flattened.
  • Overall our RE market is RED HOT and the Pandemic and an unemployment rate over 10% is NOT scaring homebuyers.
  • But, our economy is even more bi-furcated than it has ever been as the service sector has been decimated by the Pandemic which has hurt lower-income workers the most. This is probably a reason behind the protests too as lower income service sector workers feel like they have been left behind and they are correct. But, until the Pandemic subsides the service sector will not recover and most likely will never recover to pre-Pandemic levels.

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